Tuesday, April 5, 2016
Monday, April 4, 2016
What Hassan Yussuff's Comments mean for Tom Mulcair's Leadership Review
--NDP leader Tom Mulcair (left) with Canadian Labour Congress President Hassan Yussuff (right)
As I have noted on this blog and in the media, including Calgary News Talk 770, the question of if Tom Mulcair should stay or go is proving to be the primary one going into the NDP convention taking place this weekend in Edmonton.
Up until last week, it appeared that while Mulcair was facing criticisms from members, the media, the NDP Socialist Caucus, and isolated MPPs like Cheri DiNovo, it was unlikely that he would face any substantive institutional challenge to his leadership.
In a format where every single NDP member could cast a vote, the role of institutions would be less imperative, because a member could have a say even if they couldn't afford a trip to the convention.
But at this convention decisions will be determined by the people in the room, and only the people in the room. Beyond a discussion of if this model is democratic and accessible (it isn't), the reality is that those institutions with logistical and financial resources are vital in the course of convention debate.
With all this in mind, the voice of organized labour is the biggest variable in Mulcair's hope of keeping his job. And as of a few days ago, the narrative was that major unions were backing Mulcair to lead the party, if not into the next election, than for at least the next two years. These unions include the United Steel Workers, Canadian Union of Public Employees, United Food and Commercial Workers, and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers.
But a crack in this wall of labour support came in a recent Globe and Mail piece, where Canadian Labour Congress President Hassan Yussuff declared that a new NDP leader is needed, and that Mulcair has no valid claim to a continued leadership tenure.
The importance of Yussuff's claims, especially given their timing and unambiguousness, cannot be overstated. The CLC is the single largest federation of unionized workers in Canada and Yussuff's claims put him at odds with the above-mentioned pro-Mulcair unions, most of whom are chief affiliates to the CLC. It also matters that he is a planned speaker at the convention, which brings these tensions right to the mainstage in Edmonton
The main question here, however, is just how this might serve to affect the convention:
1. The vote on Mulcair's leadership: If the vote on keeping Mulcair turns out to be a close one, then Yussuff's claims might well make all the difference.
But we should keep in mind that the effect might not be as strong as expected. First, pro-Mulcair unions have been proactive, and have organized their delegations better; Yussuff's claims come rather late, and the CLC lacks the same structures to send delegates that major pro- Mulcair unions have.
But perhaps more important than how it affects the vote itself is how it changes the general 'feel' of the convention:
2. The tone of the convention: Beyond the simple yes or no question about Tom, the convention is about policy and intra-party politics. There has been a vocal and passionate anti-Mulcair contingent in the party that has only grown since the October defeat, but it remains fractured without institutional linchpins. Yussuff's claims will serve to embolden these delegates, who now know that Canada's number one labour leader supports a change agenda in the party.
My view is that these claims, which underline existing divisions between Canadian labour's upper echelons, will increase the convention's intensity, leading to more tensions between delegates, more pointed debates, and a greater sense of opposition between the pro- and anti-Mulcair camps. Not even the convention's various social events will escape unscathed from these 11th hour remarks
Again: if Mulcair turns out to have a healthy delegate lead right now, Yussuff's comments won't likely change the game. But in a close race, they will. One caveat here, however, is that a super-charged convention floor might well add volatility to all aspects of the debate, including on Mulcair's job. For Mulcair, a peaceful and routine convention is the ideal environment for preserving his job. Any sort of tumult only increases his risk.
And beyond this--whether Mulcair survives or not--the way this plays out as labour and the NDP work towards the next election, is bound to be affected, as is next year's CLC convention, where Yussuff himself faces a re-election test.
Only one thing is certain, however: this convention just got a lot more interesting
As I have noted on this blog and in the media, including Calgary News Talk 770, the question of if Tom Mulcair should stay or go is proving to be the primary one going into the NDP convention taking place this weekend in Edmonton.
Up until last week, it appeared that while Mulcair was facing criticisms from members, the media, the NDP Socialist Caucus, and isolated MPPs like Cheri DiNovo, it was unlikely that he would face any substantive institutional challenge to his leadership.
In a format where every single NDP member could cast a vote, the role of institutions would be less imperative, because a member could have a say even if they couldn't afford a trip to the convention.
But at this convention decisions will be determined by the people in the room, and only the people in the room. Beyond a discussion of if this model is democratic and accessible (it isn't), the reality is that those institutions with logistical and financial resources are vital in the course of convention debate.
With all this in mind, the voice of organized labour is the biggest variable in Mulcair's hope of keeping his job. And as of a few days ago, the narrative was that major unions were backing Mulcair to lead the party, if not into the next election, than for at least the next two years. These unions include the United Steel Workers, Canadian Union of Public Employees, United Food and Commercial Workers, and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers.
But a crack in this wall of labour support came in a recent Globe and Mail piece, where Canadian Labour Congress President Hassan Yussuff declared that a new NDP leader is needed, and that Mulcair has no valid claim to a continued leadership tenure.
The importance of Yussuff's claims, especially given their timing and unambiguousness, cannot be overstated. The CLC is the single largest federation of unionized workers in Canada and Yussuff's claims put him at odds with the above-mentioned pro-Mulcair unions, most of whom are chief affiliates to the CLC. It also matters that he is a planned speaker at the convention, which brings these tensions right to the mainstage in Edmonton
The main question here, however, is just how this might serve to affect the convention:
1. The vote on Mulcair's leadership: If the vote on keeping Mulcair turns out to be a close one, then Yussuff's claims might well make all the difference.
But we should keep in mind that the effect might not be as strong as expected. First, pro-Mulcair unions have been proactive, and have organized their delegations better; Yussuff's claims come rather late, and the CLC lacks the same structures to send delegates that major pro- Mulcair unions have.
But perhaps more important than how it affects the vote itself is how it changes the general 'feel' of the convention:
2. The tone of the convention: Beyond the simple yes or no question about Tom, the convention is about policy and intra-party politics. There has been a vocal and passionate anti-Mulcair contingent in the party that has only grown since the October defeat, but it remains fractured without institutional linchpins. Yussuff's claims will serve to embolden these delegates, who now know that Canada's number one labour leader supports a change agenda in the party.
My view is that these claims, which underline existing divisions between Canadian labour's upper echelons, will increase the convention's intensity, leading to more tensions between delegates, more pointed debates, and a greater sense of opposition between the pro- and anti-Mulcair camps. Not even the convention's various social events will escape unscathed from these 11th hour remarks
Again: if Mulcair turns out to have a healthy delegate lead right now, Yussuff's comments won't likely change the game. But in a close race, they will. One caveat here, however, is that a super-charged convention floor might well add volatility to all aspects of the debate, including on Mulcair's job. For Mulcair, a peaceful and routine convention is the ideal environment for preserving his job. Any sort of tumult only increases his risk.
And beyond this--whether Mulcair survives or not--the way this plays out as labour and the NDP work towards the next election, is bound to be affected, as is next year's CLC convention, where Yussuff himself faces a re-election test.
Only one thing is certain, however: this convention just got a lot more interesting
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